Pep Guardiola’s arrival in the Premier League in 2016 marked the dawn of a revolution in English football that’s more evident now than ever before.
From his first season in Manchester, it became clear that Guardiola’s philosophy — one built on possession, patient build-up play, and intricate passing — would have a profound impact not just on his own team, but on the league as a whole. The statistics paint a compelling picture of this transformation, with a clear trend towards playing out from the back becoming the norm rather than the exception. And now, as we approach the 2023-24 season, the full scope of Guardiola’s influence on English football has never been clearer.
Five years ago, a viral tweet captured the essence of this shift. The tweet, featuring a beautiful goal by Rochdale, then in League One, demonstrated a sweeping move of 16 passes that started with a calm build-up from the defense. The tweet’s caption, “Right, so f ROCHDALE scored this goal and you’re telling me Pep Guardiola isn’t having an influence on English football?” quickly became a meme, and with good reason. Guardiola’s impact on the game in England had become undeniable, even at the lower levels of the pyramid. Today, that influence is impossible to ignore.
When Guardiola arrived in England, goal kicks in the Premier League were still largely a case of “hoof it up the field” to relieve pressure. In the 2015-16 season, the percentage of goal kicks that ended in the defensive third of the pitch was just 17%. Fast-forward to this season, and that number has skyrocketed to 61%. Nearly two in three goal kicks now end up in the defensive third, with many goalkeepers preferring to play out short passes rather than clearing the ball long. More than half of these goal kicks don’t even make it out of the penalty area, a stark contrast to the past.
Guardiola’s emphasis on playing from the back has not only changed the way teams structure their attacks but also revolutionized goalkeeper play. In the 2015-16 season, goalkeepers completed only 51% of their passes. Today, that figure has risen to 71%. The trend is clear: English football has embraced a more possession-based style of play, one that Guardiola has championed and perfected over the years. However, as we will see, not all teams have found this approach equally effective.
The impact of Guardiola’s philosophy is particularly evident in the Premier League this season. Two of the new managerial faces, Russell Martin at Southampton and Enzo Maresca at Chelsea, have taken their cues directly from Guardiola’s playbook. Both teams prioritize short goal kicks, with 80% of their goal kicks staying inside their own penalty area. Only Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham Hotspur average a shorter goal-kick distance. These managers have taken Guardiola’s principles and tried to implement them at their respective clubs, with varying degrees of success.
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Maercesa, who worked with Guardiola at Manchester City, has brought this possession-heavy style to Chelsea. At Leicester City, Mads Hermansen set a Championship record for the most passes completed by a goalkeeper, a testament to the influence Guardiola had on him. Now, at Chelsea, Maresca has the Blues playing out from the back, and while results have been promising, they are still very much a work in progress. The team’s high press and quick transitions have paid dividends, but as with any Guardiola disciple, mistakes are inevitable.
Indeed, some of the biggest struggles faced by Maresca and Martin’s sides have been in adapting to the risks of playing out from the back. In Southampton’s case, despite being one of the top teams in terms of pass completion, they are bottom of the Premier League. They’ve been far too often caught out by high presses, with 75 turnovers in their defensive third and 15 errors that have directly led to shots on goal. The price of playing out from the back can be steep, and Southampton is learning that the hard way.
It’s not just about possession; it’s about risk. According to Opta, teams that play out from the back have already conceded 20 shots from goal kicks this season, with only five shots taken within 30 seconds of a short goal kick. That’s a ratio that shows the high-risk nature of this playing style. The increased number of turnovers in the defensive third has seen teams concede far more goals from high turnovers than they did 10 seasons ago. Brentford, Southampton, Brighton, Ipswich, and Wolves have all suffered from such errors. Even Burnley, who tried to embrace a similar playing style last season, were relegated as a result.
Despite these struggles, there are teams that have managed to perfect the system. Brighton & Hove Albion, under Roberto De Zerbi, have been among the best at playing from the back, showcasing that patience and possession can still yield results in the modern Premier League. But this wasn’t always the case. Under Chris Hughton, Brighton played a much more pragmatic style and focused on the basics, which ultimately helped them stay in the Premier League before they could fully implement a possession-based game.
Meanwhile, other top clubs have taken a more varied approach to possession-based football. Arsenal, under Mikel Arteta, a former Guardiola assistant, have embraced the long goal kick as an alternative to playing short. Over two-thirds of Arsenal’s goal kicks are launched long, and while they still build from the back, Arteta is pragmatic enough to switch tactics when needed. Similarly, Manchester City themselves have been known to go long when required. In their 2023 title-deciding clash with Arsenal, Guardiola opted for a 4-4-2 formation and deployed long balls to bypass Arteta’s high press — a stark reminder that even the most idealistic managers must adapt to circumstances.
Guardiola’s influence on English football cannot be overstated. His commitment to a footballing philosophy that values possession and controlled build-up has reshaped not only Manchester City but also the broader Premier League. But as the game evolves, it’s clear that Guardiola’s disciples face a delicate balance. The question remains: how much longer can teams like Southampton and Chelsea maintain this style before the inevitable doubts begin to creep in? For Guardiola, it’s a process of constant adaptation — one that continues to shape the future of football in England.
As the Premier League continues to evolve, Guardiola’s philosophy will remain a cornerstone of tactical discussions. For better or worse, English football has been transformed by his influence, and the ripple effects of his ideas will be felt for many seasons to come. The key now is for the next generation of managers to find their own balance — between maintaining the ideals of possession-based play and understanding the importance of pragmatic, effective strategies that can get them results in the most competitive league in the world.
Takeaways:
- Guardiola’s influence on Premier League tactics is evident in the increased reliance on playing out from the back.
- Teams like Southampton and Chelsea are playing short goal kicks to follow Guardiola’s philosophy, with mixed results.
- Playing from the back comes with significant risks, as high turnovers in the defensive third lead to goals.
- Even Guardiola himself has adapted, with teams like Arsenal and Manchester City using a mix of short and long goal kicks.
- While possession-based football is on the rise, it remains to be seen whether clubs can maintain success with this style.
Up Next:
The Premier League continues to showcase a variety of tactical approaches, but Guardiola’s influence remains a defining characteristic of the league’s evolution. Will his disciples succeed, or will the risks of playing out from the back prove too costly for some clubs? Time will tell.
