As we hit Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season, the playoff race is tightening, and every game counts.
Whether you’re tracking fantasy football rankings or just hoping for some unexpected upsets, there’s plenty to dive into as teams prepare for critical matchups. From key statistical trends to under-the-radar fantasy picks and potential upset alerts, here’s everything you need to know before kickoff this weekend.
Stat Trends That Could Shape Week 11
Several intriguing statistical trends are poised to influence Week 11 outcomes. For example, Khalil Shakir could be in for a breakout game against the Chiefs. Kansas City has allowed 53% of its receiving yards after the catch, the sixth-highest rate in the league. Shakir leads the NFL in yards after catch (YAC) with 407 yards, and his proficiency in routes designed to generate YAC, such as screens and drag routes, sets him up for a big game. If Buffalo can exploit Kansas City’s vulnerability to YAC, Shakir could deliver a major fantasy boost.
Another trend to watch is Kareem Hunt’s role in the Chiefs’ offense. The Buffalo Bills’ cornerbacks, particularly Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford, have limited the target rate to wide receivers, which could shift the focus back to the running backs. Hunt is coming off a solid performance with 10 targets, and given that the Bills are allowing the highest percentage of targets to running backs (26%), Hunt could see another high-volume game this week.
On the flip side, Will Levis faces a daunting task against Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense. Levis has struggled all season, posting the worst turnover rate (4.7%) in the NFL and a dismal QBR of 32. Minnesota’s defense, which blitzes more than any other team in the league, will surely apply pressure. Levis’ numbers against the blitz are brutal, with his QBR dropping to 7—league-worst—under pressure. Expect Minnesota’s defense to take full advantage.
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Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jared Verse’s Big Chance
Could Jared Verse solidify his case for Defensive Rookie of the Year with a monster performance against the Patriots? Verse has been stellar all season, ranking 12th in pass rush win rate (18.8%) and third in run stop win rate (34%). With Vederian Lowe struggling on the Patriots’ offensive line, Verse has the opportunity to wreak havoc in New England’s backfield, making a statement game for the rookie. The Patriots’ offensive line has been leaky, and Verse could rack up key sacks and pressures in this matchup.
The Jets’ Ground Game: Can They Turn It Around?
For the New York Jets, Sunday’s game against the Colts is make-or-break for their postseason hopes. With their passing attack struggling, the Jets will need a heavy dose of the ground game to stay competitive. But Indianapolis has been excellent at defending the outside zone run, a staple of the Jets’ offense. The Colts have been allowing the best EPA (Expected Points Added) on outside zone runs, making it tough for New York to find success on the ground. The Jets will need to adapt and diversify their offense, or they risk another disappointing loss.
Fantasy Sleepers for Week 11
If you’re in need of a last-minute fantasy boost, a few players are flying under the radar and could deliver big performances. Audric Estime of the Denver Broncos is only rostered in 25% of leagues, but after leading the backfield in snaps and touches last week, he could be a solid flex option. The Falcons’ defense ranks 28th in run stop win rate, making this a good spot for Estime to produce.
Drake Maye has been solid for the Patriots, and with his rushing ability, he’s a sneaky start in fantasy. Maye has averaged over 4 rushing attempts and 39 yards per game, and against the Rams’ defense—which has allowed the 11th-most passing yards per game—he could surprise with another strong performance. Maye has scored over 15 fantasy points in three of his last five games, so don’t sleep on him.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, the boom-or-bust receiver for the New Orleans Saints, has shown potential to make big plays, as evidenced by his 25.9 fantasy-point outing against the Falcons last week. With the Saints’ receiving corps struggling, Valdes-Scantling should see more looks, especially against the Browns’ defense, which has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Jameis Winston could be a solid streaming option for those in deep leagues, especially in a revenge game against the Saints. Despite a tumultuous season, Winston has averaged 43.5 pass attempts per game in his last two starts, making him a potential fantasy sleeper in a game where he could be forced to throw often.
Dawson Knox, tight end for the Buffalo Bills, is another sleeper to consider. With Dalton Kincaid out for Week 11 due to a knee injury, Knox becomes the de facto top tight end in Buffalo. The Chiefs have struggled against tight ends this season, making Knox a high-upside option for fantasy managers looking for a late-season boost.
Upset Alert: Colts Over Jets
When it comes to upsets, Indianapolis (+4) at the New York Jets stands out as a strong candidate. The Jets have been reeling, and their offense, especially the ground game, has been ineffective. Meanwhile, the Colts are finding their groove, with Anthony Richardson returning as the starting quarterback. Richardson has faced some growing pains this season, but he’s improved, especially after his benching. Expect the Colts to lean heavily on the run game, which could overwhelm the Jets’ defense, and with a stronger pass rush, Indianapolis could put Aaron Rodgers on his heels all game long. The Jets’ playoff hopes are flickering, and this might be the game where their season officially unravels.
Don’t Be Surprised If…
Week 11 could be full of surprises, so here are a few predictions that might shake things up. Josh Allen could run for another touchdown, having logged at least seven carries in three of his past five games. He’ll likely need to make plays outside of the pocket to take down the Chiefs, so look for him to score on a second-reaction rushing attempt in the red zone.
Josh Jacobs has a chance to eclipse 100 rushing yards against the Chicago Bears. Jacobs has been getting more volume, with at least 18 carries in three of his past five games, and the Bears have been porous against the run, ranking 24th in rushing yards allowed per game. This could be a prime spot for Jacobs to pound the rock and produce a solid fantasy day.
In another surprise, Amani Hooker of the Titans could add to his interception total against Sam Darnold. Darnold has struggled with decision-making, throwing five interceptions over his last two games. Hooker, who has already recorded three picks this season, could capitalize on another mistake-prone performance by Darnold.
Finally, George Pickens has the potential to go over 100 receiving yards against the Ravens. With Russell Wilson under center for the Steelers, Pickens has been a deep threat, averaging nearly 20 yards per catch and 92 yards per game in his three games with Wilson. With the Ravens’ secondary giving up the most passing yards per game in the league, Pickens could be primed for a monster outing.
Latest Buzz: Injuries and Key News
As teams finalize their preparations for Week 11, injury updates are crucial. Isiah Pacheco, the Chiefs’ running back, is still recovering from a fibula injury and will miss Week 11, but he’s eyeing a return next week. Meanwhile, Amari Cooper (wrist) is expected to play for the Browns, though it’s still unclear whether he will suit up this weekend. Keep an eye on these updates to adjust your fantasy lineups accordingly.
Finally, the Ravens are preparing for their crucial divisional clash against the Steelers, with Todd Monken noting that the Ravens “owe them one” after a tough loss to Pittsburgh last season. The Ravens have relied heavily on their ground game, and if Derrick Henry gets 15+ carries, they are 7-1 this season, which could give them the edge in a critical matchup.
As Week 11 unfolds, expect plenty of twists and turns. Whether it’s a fantasy sleeper or a potential upset, the action is sure to provide some drama as teams continue to jockey for playoff positioning.
