Pep Guardiola has experienced more than his share of torment at Anfield, but Sunday’s clash with Liverpool may present one of his toughest challenges yet.
The reigning Premier League champions, Manchester City, are heading to Merseyside on the back of an unprecedented five consecutive defeats under Guardiola’s tenure, including a catastrophic collapse from a 3-0 lead against Feyenoord in the Champions League.
In stark contrast, Liverpool, rejuvenated under head coach Arne Slot, have been flying high. They’ve won 17 of their last 19 games across all competitions, dismantled both the German and Spanish champions with a combined 6-0 aggregate, and now have the opportunity to open an 11-point gap over City with a victory at Anfield.
A Fragile Midfield Exposed
City’s struggles can be traced directly to the absence of Rodri, their midfield linchpin. With Ruben Dias also missing, the defensive frailties have been glaring. Once a well-oiled machine capable of suffocating opponents with possession and precision, City now resemble an aging unit of midfielders chasing back in vain, unable to keep up with the pace and physical demands of the Premier League.
Guardiola’s possession-based philosophy has always walked a fine line. The aim is to dominate the ball, pin opponents deep, and compress the game into the opposition’s half. But this high-wire act comes with a trade-off—any loss of possession leaves City vulnerable to quick, high-quality chances on the break.
Defensive Metrics Sound the Alarm
This season, the cracks have widened significantly. Without Rodri, City’s average expected goals (xG) value per shot conceded has soared to 0.16—the worst in the Premier League. For context, Arsenal’s stands at 0.07, and Liverpool’s at 0.09. More alarmingly, City are now conceding more “big chances” than they are creating—a scenario unthinkable in their record-breaking 2017-18 campaign.
Since Rodri’s knee injury in the draw against Arsenal, City have faced more big chances than any other top-flight club. The defensive midfield recruitment has done little to plug the gaps. Mateo Kovacic, though technically proficient, lacks the athleticism to shield the defense effectively, leaving veterans like Ilkay Gundogan, Bernardo Silva, and Kevin De Bruyne—each on the wrong side of 30—struggling to press and recover with the same intensity.
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Liverpool’s Blueprint for Exploitation
Slot’s Liverpool are well-positioned to exploit City’s current vulnerabilities. With Trent Alexander-Arnold and Virgil van Dijk orchestrating play from deep, and Caoimhin Kelleher providing a calm presence in goal, Liverpool could adopt a strategy of drawing City out with short passes before launching long, direct balls to stretch the pitch.
City will face a dilemma: press high and risk leaving their defense exposed one-on-one against Liverpool’s attackers, or hold back and concede space, allowing Liverpool to build control from the back. Either scenario plays into Liverpool’s hands, particularly with full-backs like Andy Robertson and Alexander-Arnold adept at whipping dangerous crosses into the box.
Recent Defensive Mishaps Highlight a Trend
City’s season has been punctuated by moments of defensive disarray. Wolves, Tottenham, and Bournemouth have all capitalized on City’s inability to contain crosses and late midfield runs. Against Wolves, a well-timed cross found its way past John Stones and Dias, while Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo exposed City’s left side, leaving Josko Gvardiol stranded too far forward.
Curtis Jones, expected to retain his place in Liverpool’s midfield, could be a key figure. His late runs into the box, like the one that sealed victory over Chelsea, have the potential to cause havoc against a City midfield lacking a natural tracker. James Maddison’s incisive runs for Tottenham last week demonstrated just how susceptible City are to such movements.
Tactical Adjustments on the Table
Guardiola faces a tactical conundrum. A full high press could exacerbate City’s athletic shortcomings, while a deep, passive approach would cede control to Liverpool. A mid-block, perhaps in a 4-4-2 formation, might offer a compromise—keeping the midfield compact and reducing the space Liverpool can exploit between the lines.
The potential return of Ruben Dias could offer some respite. If Guardiola deploys John Stones in a defensive midfield role, City might regain some of the stability they’ve sorely missed. Stones, a key figure in last season’s draw at Anfield, could provide the technical and physical presence to screen the backline and help cut off Liverpool’s supply lines.
A Defining Clash for Guardiola and City
Sunday’s encounter at Anfield could prove pivotal not only for City’s title aspirations but also for Guardiola’s legacy this season. With Liverpool surging and City stumbling, the balance of power in the Premier League appears to be shifting.
For City, the task is clear—find a way to neutralize Liverpool’s attacking threats, regain control of the midfield, and rediscover the defensive solidity that has been the cornerstone of their success. Anything less, and Anfield could once again become a venue of torment for Guardiola and his men.
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