The decision to sell Julián Alvarez to Atletico Madrid last summer was understandable from Manchester City’s standpoint.
The club banked an impressive £81.5 million, a significant profit from the £14 million they had spent to bring him from River Plate just 2½ years prior. More importantly, Alvarez’s desire for a bigger role and reluctance to play backup to Erling Haaland made the move logical for all parties involved. Yet, it’s hard to ignore the void his departure has left in City’s attack.
City’s reliance on Haaland has become increasingly pronounced, especially in light of injuries and the absence of other key figures. The prolific Norwegian striker has netted 14 goals so far this season, accounting for a staggering 40% of City’s total goals. This is a notable increase compared to last season when Alvarez’s seven goals by this point helped share the scoring load. In Haaland’s first season, he had already scored 22 goals by the 17-match mark, but City’s overall tally then was 48 goals, highlighting the current shortfall.
The numbers tell the story: in only one of Pep Guardiola’s previous eight campaigns have City scored fewer goals after 17 games. The last time was during the 2020-21 season when Sergio Aguero’s injuries forced Guardiola to rely on a makeshift system with midfielders playing as false nines. Fast forward to this season, City’s tally of 35 goals after 17 games pales in comparison to their blistering pace in 2017-18 and 2019-20 when they had already scored 52 and 51 goals, respectively.
City’s dependence on Haaland has been magnified in recent matches. While he provided the winning goal against Southampton in a narrow 1-0 victory two weeks ago, City have since suffered three consecutive defeats. Haaland was on the bench for the 2-1 Carabao Cup loss to Tottenham, went scoreless in a 2-1 Premier League defeat to Bournemouth, and even missed a penalty in their 4-1 Champions League loss to Sporting Lisbon. Brighton will be hoping to keep Haaland’s mini goal drought going when they face City at the Amex Stadium today.
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The disparity in scoring within the squad is striking. While Haaland leads with 14 goals, the next highest scorers are scattered across the lineup, with five players having just three goals each. Notably, two of those players, Josko Gvardiol and John Stones, are defenders. Although City have maintained a spread of 11 different scorers, they aren’t dispatching opponents as efficiently as in seasons past. This season, half of their wins have come by a single-goal margin.
Moreover, City have scored three or more goals in only five matches this season, compared to eight at this stage last term and seven in each of the two seasons before that. During the 2019-20 season, they hit the three-goal mark in 10 of their first 17 matches. Despite these indicators, Guardiola remains unfazed, attributing the team’s struggles to injuries rather than missing Alvarez’s firepower. This is a familiar theme; City have experienced an autumn slump in each of the past six seasons and have still managed to recover to win the league in four of those campaigns.
Yet, this time feels different. Kevin De Bruyne, pivotal to City’s attacking engine, has managed only 439 minutes this season due to a series of injuries. Phil Foden, who stepped up impressively last season during De Bruyne’s extended absence, has also been limited. After a taxing summer at Euro 2024 with England and a bout of illness, Foden missed a month and has only recently returned to regular action. Though he has started City’s last five games, he hasn’t quite reached the sparkling form that earned him multiple Player of the Season awards last year.
Rodri’s absence has also been keenly felt. The Spanish midfielder is more than just a metronome for Guardiola’s side; his contributions last season included nine goals. Without him, City’s midfield has struggled to maintain its usual fluidity and goal-scoring threat. Stones and Gvardiol have tried to compensate, but more is needed from City’s wide players. Savinho, a £33 million signing from Troyes, has shown promise but is yet to find the net. Jack Grealish’s form has been disrupted by injuries, and Jeremy Doku has only two league goals to show over the past year.
The Belgian winger, brought in as a replacement for Cole Palmer, has yet to hit his stride at the Etihad Stadium. Palmer, meanwhile, has flourished at Chelsea, scoring 26 league goals during the same period. The decision to sell Alvarez made sense under the circumstances, but the move to part with Palmer, regardless of City’s successes, appears increasingly questionable.
As Guardiola and City look to bounce back, the focus will undoubtedly be on rediscovering their attacking verve. While Haaland’s brilliance is undisputed, he can’t do it alone. The next few weeks will be crucial for players like Foden and Savinho to step up and provide the support that City’s attack desperately needs.
City’s current position is not yet cause for panic, but it does raise questions. Can they adapt their tactics and make up for the lost goals from Alvarez and others? Or will their autumn slump extend longer than usual? One thing is clear: if City are to sustain their bid for silverware, they must find solutions beyond just relying on their towering Norwegian striker.