The NBA has historically been tough on teams trying to win their first championship.
Before the Toronto Raptors’ 2019 title, only 11 teams had claimed all of the previous 39 championships since 1980. In fact, just six of those titles (15%) were won by teams earning their first ring.
But the 2019 Raptors kicked off a significant shift in the league. From 2019 to 2024, six different teams won the NBA championship—only the second time in NBA history that such variety has occurred over a six-year span. Though not all were first-time winners, the Raptors in 2019 and the Denver Nuggets in 2023 marked a new era for fresh contenders.
This change brings hope to the 10 active NBA franchises still chasing their first championship: the Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Indiana Pacers, LA Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Orlando Magic, Phoenix Suns, and Utah Jazz. With that in mind, we’ve ranked the teams most likely to claim their first title, if any do, within the next six years.
To figure out each team’s chances, we start with their preseason Las Vegas odds and mix in factors like average roster age and the performance of their star players. Using this data, we simulated the next six seasons thousands of times to predict how often a new champion emerged—and which team it was when it happened.
Based on these simulations, there’s about an 80% chance we’ll see a new team win it all by 2030. This aligns with NBA history: only two out of twelve six-year periods since 1953 have failed to produce a new champion. Let’s dive into the rankings of teams with the best odds to become the next first-time NBA champ:
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1. Minnesota Timberwolves
Odds to be next: 24.9%
Average roster age for 2024-25: 28.8 (22nd youngest)
Preseason title odds: +900
Closest they’ve come before: Lost Western Conference finals (2024, 2004)
The Timberwolves are the frontrunners here, and for good reason. They came close to the Finals last season, falling short in the Western Conference finals. With 23-year-old star Anthony Edwards leading the charge and a revamped roster (they traded Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks for Donte DiVincenzo, Julius Randle, and a future first-round pick), Minnesota is in a strong position for title runs in the near future. Considering the franchise made the playoffs just once between 2005 and 2021, their transformation into a serious contender is remarkable.
2. Indiana Pacers
Odds to be next: 13.8%
Average roster age for 2024-25: 26.9 (11th youngest)
Preseason title odds: +5000
Closest they’ve come before: Lost NBA Finals (2000)
The Pacers technically won multiple ABA titles in the 1970s, but we’re focusing on NBA championships. Fortunately, Indiana’s NBA prospects look bright. They have the league’s 11th-youngest roster, led by rising star Tyrese Haliburton, who’s coming off his best season yet. With Haliburton and Pascal Siakam under contract for the next four seasons, the Pacers have a solid chance to win their first NBA title in the coming years.
3. Phoenix Suns
Odds to be next: 13.6%
Average roster age for 2024-25: 30.6 (27th youngest)
Preseason title odds: +2000
Closest they’ve come before: Lost NBA Finals (2021, 1993, 1976)
Though the Suns have had their share of close calls, they’re still chasing their first championship. With future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant, along with Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, they have the talent to contend. Phoenix has the most wins of any team on this list, and given their long and storied history, they’re due for a breakthrough.
4. Orlando Magic
Odds to be next: 12.5%
Average roster age for 2024-25: 25.7 (3rd youngest)
Preseason title odds: +5000
Closest they’ve come before: Lost NBA Finals (2009, 1995)
The Magic are one of the youngest teams in the league, with a promising core of Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs—all under 23 years old. While they haven’t made it past the first round since 2010, their young talent gives them plenty of upside. Orlando could take a leap forward in the coming seasons.
5. New Orleans Pelicans
Odds to be next: 10.0%
Average roster age for 2024-25: 27.0 (12th youngest)
Preseason title odds: +5000
Closest they’ve come before: Lost in the second round (2018, 2008)
The Pelicans have a solid roster with Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and CJ McCollum leading the way. While injuries have held them back, if they can stay healthy and make a deep playoff run, New Orleans has the potential to break through and claim their first championship.
6. Memphis Grizzlies
Odds to be next: 9.4%
Average roster age for 2024-25: 26.3 (6th youngest)
Preseason title odds: +3300
Closest they’ve come before: Lost Western Conference finals (2013)
The Grizzlies have a young and talented team, led by Ja Morant and Desmond Bane. Though they’ve yet to reach the Finals, their strong core and depth make them a team to watch in the coming years.
7. LA Clippers
Odds to be next: 7.3%
Average roster age for 2024-25: 32.0 (oldest)
Preseason title odds: +10000
Closest they’ve come before: Lost Western Conference finals (2021)
Despite years of high expectations, the Clippers have struggled to capitalize in the playoffs. With an aging roster and key players like Kawhi Leonard sidelined, their chances of winning a title seem slim, but they shouldn’t be entirely ruled out.
8. Utah Jazz
Odds to be next: 3.8%
Average roster age for 2024-25: 26.6 (10th youngest)
Preseason title odds: +100000
Closest they’ve come before: Lost NBA Finals (1997, 1998)
The Jazz are in rebuilding mode but have some intriguing young players, like Lauri Markkanen and Collin Sexton. While they may not be contenders immediately, they could make some noise in the next few years.
9. Charlotte Hornets
Odds to be next: 2.6%
Average roster age for 2024-25: 25.3 (youngest)
Preseason title odds: +100000
Closest they’ve come before: Lost in the second round (2002, 2001, 1998, 1993)
The Hornets have never made it to the conference finals and haven’t reached the playoffs since 2016. However, with young talents like LaMelo Ball, they could have a bright future if they stay healthy.
10. Brooklyn Nets
Odds to be next: 2.1%
Average roster age for 2024-25: 27.3 (13th youngest)
Preseason title odds: +100000
Closest they’ve come before: Lost NBA Finals (2003, 2002)
The Nets have seen their championship hopes fade since their “superteam” era, but with young players like Mikal Bridges leading the way, they still have an outside shot at making history.
